LARC was born from a background that combines expertise on/in: Wall Street, Hotel Operations, Lodging Consulting and Investment Advisory and Direct Hotel Investments. Through this unique combination, we know and understand the hotel industry from a variety of angles. We understand what drives various lodging markets and most importantly, that each hotel market is distinct with disparate fundamental drivers. This background creates an unparalleled expertise in desktop analysis and forecasting across the lodging industry. Our methodology is based on a deep analytical approach, customized for each situation, resulting in the best possible analysis and enabling our clients to make better business decisions.
Expansive Market Intelligence with Custom Forecasts by Market
At LARC, we understand that individual markets have different drivers. For example, we know that the energy markets have an outsized impact on markets like Houston and Denver, while international economies have an outsized impact on coastal gateway markets. However, we can go one step further to understand that Asian markets are bigger feeders to the West Coast gateway cities while Europe is a bigger driver to East Coast markets and Latin America to Miami. As such, we develop unique analytical forecast models for each market we analyze. As a result, our analyses yield models that don’t just have different coefficients across similar drivers, but actually have a unique set of drivers for each market. This process, while in-depth and complex, yields highly accurate forecasting over the short and medium terms.
Transparency is a Core Value
Don’t just take our word for things, we show you. At LARC, we believe our forecast accuracy should be transparent and offer a means for our clients to alter inputs to key drivers, should they have differing assumptions. We share the accuracy and the primary drivers of our models. We also provide sensitivity tables on the impact of those drivers based on forecast assumptions, should you disagree with our baseline economic forecasts. This enables our clients to trust the tools we give them and adjust as they see fit.
Expense and Property Value Forecasting
We also understand that accurate forecasting of expense growth factors and cap rates are as critical as revenue in determining hotel profitability and investment returns. As such, we spend just as much time understanding expense drivers and investment return factors in a market as we do revenue drivers.